尾注与鸣谢

SMD Project Leader: Jonathan Deering

SMD Megatrends Team: ​
Changing Climates and Resources: Sarah Irish
Shifting Demographics and Social Change: Beth Lokken
The Rebalancing World: Tyler Yoder
Technological Breakthroughs: Bridget Nyland
The Rise of the Individual: Nikhil Sehgal, Alejandro Rothschuh

SMD Advisor: Danielle Amfahr

3M Resources: Alice Melton, Phil Bea and  Jon Taves

尾注: 

1. https://www-bccresearch-com.mmm.idm.oclc.org/market-research/fuel-cell-and-battery-technologies/electric-vehicles-and-fuel-cellvehicles-global-markets.html
2. https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Highlights.pdf
3. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
4. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
5. Interview with Robert Manning
6. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
7. https://chinapower.csis.org/aging-problem/
8. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-11-06/india-vs-dotchina-the-battle-for-global-manufacturing
9. https://www.bcg.com/publications/2018/how-shifting-costs-arealtering-math-global-manufacturing.aspx
10. World Economic Forum Strategic Intelligence, Ageing
11. https://www.un.org/en/events/citiesday/assets/pdf/the_worlds_cities_in_2018_data_booklet.pdf
12. https://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/urbanization/urban-world-theglobal-consumers-to-watch/~/media/57c6ad7f7f1b44a6bd2e24f0777b-4cd6.ashx
13. https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/social/urbanizationexpanding-opportunities-but-deeper-divides.html
14. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/mapped-the-dramaticglobal-rise-of-urbanization-1950-2020/
15. https://intelligence.weforum.org/topics/a1Gb0000000LiPhEAK?tab=-publications
16. https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS45303119
17. Interview with Matthew Bailey
18. Interview with Matthew Bailey
19. https://hbr.org/2018/06/is-your-company-ready-for-the-rise-of-smartcities
20. https://www.rti.org/insights/future-work-coming-whether-wereprepared-it-or-not
21. McGowan, Müge Adalet and Dan Andrews, Skill Mismatch and Public Policy in OECD Countries (Economic Working Paper nos. 1210), OECD, 2015.
22. Figure from the World Economic Forum, 2018. The response to a question to the business leaders surveyed in the Future of Jobs survey asking the share of core skills of jobs within their enterprise that will stay constant between today and 2022. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_2019_Strategies_for_the_New_Economy_Skills.pdf
23. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/focus/humancapital-trends/2019/alternative-workforce-gig-economy.html
24. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/focus/technology-and-thefuture-of-work/redefining-work-workforces-workplaces.html
25. https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/gender-equality/the-futureof-women-at-work-transitions-in-the-age-of-automation
26. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/32639/9781464815324.pdf
27. https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/gender-equality/the-futureof-women-at-work-transitions-in-the-age-of-automation
28. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/focus/cognitive-technologies/ai-adoption-in-the-workforce.html#endnote-sup-1
29. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_2019_Strategies_for_the_New_Economy_Skills.pdf
30. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/four-success-factors-for-workforce-automation
31. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/organization/our-insights/redefining-the-role-of-the-leader-in-the-reskilling-era
32. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/focus/technology-and-thefuture-of-work/future-of-work-human-capabilities.html>
33. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/focus/humancapital-trends/2019/alternative-workforce-gig-economy.html
34. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_EGW_FOJ_Africa.pdf
35. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/focus/cognitive-technologies/ai-a doption-in-the-workforce.html#endnote-sup-1
36. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Towards a Reskilling_Revolution.pdf
37. Deloitte, How the financial crisis affected the world’s workforce
38. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_protect/---protrav/---travail/documents/publication/wcms_650568.pdf
39. International Labor Organization
40. World Bank. The State of Social Safety Nets 2018.
41. https://www.transamericacenter.org/docs/default-source/globalsurvey-2018/tcrs2018_sr_new-social-contract-for-retirement.pdf
42. https://www.transamericacenter.org/docs/default-source/globalsurvey-2018/tcrs2018_sr_new-social-contract-for-retirement.pdf
43. https://www.weforum.org/minding-the-400-trillion-pensions-gap
44. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/03/retired-women-less-moneypensions-than-men
45. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/01/wages-have-fallen-43-formillennials-no-wonder-they-ve-lost-hope/
46. Joshua Kurlantzick GLG interview. Council on Foreign Relations. 2020.
47. Joshua Kurlantzick GLG interview. Council on Foreign Relations. 2020.
48. China and the World. McKinsey Global Institute. 2019.
49. “The Digital Silk Road: Expanding China’s Digital Footprint.” Eurasia Group. 2020.
50. China and the World. McKinsey Global Institute. 2019.
51. China and the World. McKinsey Global Institute. 2019.
52. China and the World. McKinsey Global Institute. 2019.
53. “With West divided, Huawei plans first European 5G factory in France.” Reuters. 2020.
54. China and the World. McKinsey Global Institute. 2019.
55. Daniel Altman GLG interview. Managing member, Nyk Capital Management. 2020.
56. “Labor Costs Will Skyrocket Over the Next Decade.” CFO. 2018.
57. Daniel Altman GLG interview. Managing member, Nyk Capital Management. 2020.
58. “Labor Costs Will Skyrocket Over the Next Decade.” CFO. 2018.
59. Daniel Altman GLG interview. Managing member, Nyk Capital Management. 2020.
60. Daniel Altman GLG interview. Managing member, Nyk Capital Management. 2020.
61. Daniel Altman GLG interview. Managing member, Nyk Capital Management. 2020.
62. “EG Update” email. Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group. March 30, 2020.
63. “4 Benefits of a Recession.” NASDAQ. 2020.
64. “4 Benefits of a Recession.” NASDAQ. 2020.
65. Daniel Altman GLG interview. Managing member, Nyk Capital Management. 2020.
66. Philippe Le Corre GLG interview, Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School. 2020.
67. Jonathan Portes interview, Former Chief Economist, UK Cabinet. 2020.
68. “How bad will this recession be, and how long will it last?” Marketplace. 2020.
69. “The World’s Next Great Manufacturing Center.” Harvard Business Review. 2017.
70. “Africa’s role in the global manufacturing hub of the future.” Harvard Business Review. 2017.
71. “EY Life Sciences Report: Asia.” EY. 2018.
72. Joshua Kurlantzick GLG interview. Council on Foreign Relations. 2020.
73. “German managers: One in five fear production downtimes.” Kloepfel Consulting. 2020.
74. “Bridging Global Infrastructure Gaps.” McKinsey Global Institute. 2016.
75. “Latin America: 5 business mega trends to watch in 2019.” Zoho Partners. 2019.
76. “The world is facing a $15 trillion infrastructure gap by 2040. Here’s how to bridge it.” World Economic Forum. 2019.
77. “Tackling Europe’s infrastructure needs: the European Fund for Strategic Investments.” Journal of Mega Infrastructure & Sustainable Development. 2019.
78. https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/87144/15-strategic-reservesunusual- products
79. “UK to halve emergency petroleum stocks after no-deal Brexit.” Financial Times. 2019.
80. “Uniper, gas lobby say Germany must help them keep lights on.” Reuters. 2020.
81. China and the World. McKinsey Global Institute. 2019.
82. “Chinese lunar ambitions soar 50 years after moon landing.” South China Morning Post. 2019.
83. Daniel Altman GLG interview. Managing member, Nyk Capital Management. 2020.
84. “Why infrastructure is the only way to fight a COVID-19 recession in the US.” World Economic Forum. 2020.
85. “Why infrastructure is the only way to fight a COVID-19 recession in the US.” World Economic Forum. 2020.
86. Daniel Altman GLG interview. Managing member, Nyk Capital Management. 2020.
87. “3 things to know about India’s space programme.” World Economic Forum. 2019.
88. “Chinese lunar ambitions soar 50 years after moon landing.” South China Morning Post. 2019.
89. https://www.personalizedmedicinecoalition.org/Userfiles/PMCCorporate/file/PM_at_FDA_A_Progress_and_Outlook_Report.pdf
90. https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/press-room/pressreleases/2017/8/gilead-sciences-to-acquire-kite-pharma-for-119-billion
91. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-panasonic-results/tesla-up-20-after-panasonic-posts-first-quarterly-profit-at-battery-business-idUSKBN1ZX0MO
92. https://www.utilitydive.com/news/battery-storage-companies-set-14b-record-in-venture-capital-funding-repo/559379/
93. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615180/quantumcomputer-race-ibm-google/
94. https://www.technologyreview.com/f/615309/industrial-gianthoneywell-says-its-built-the-worlds-best-quantum-computer/
95. Modular and Mobile
96. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey-analytics/our-insights/leading-your-organization-to-responsible-ai#
97. https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/artificial-intelligence/visualizing-the-uses-and-potential-impact-of-ai-and-other-analytics
98. https://www.adlittle.com/sites/default/files/viewpoints/adl_future_of_batteries-min.pdf
99. Eun Ji interview
100. Eun Ji interview
101. https://hai.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj10986/f/ai_index_2019_report.pdf
102. https://ec.europa.eu/digital-single-market/en/news/ethicsguidelines-trustworthy-ai
103. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/18/technology/google-eu-androidfine.html
104. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/Tech-giants-braceagainst-Korea-s-new-antitrust-enforcer
105. Eun Ji interview
106. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326302770_Wal-Mart’s_Omni-channel_Synergy
107. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-lyft/gm-considers-options-forits-lyft-stake-following-ipo-idUSKCN1QZ28S
108. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/16/business/dealbook/amazon-whole-foods.html
109. https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2020/01/2020-insights/private-pre-ipo-investments
110. https://www.innosight.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Corporate-Longevity-2016-Final.pdf
111. https://research.google/teams/applied-science/gas/
112. https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-u-s-can-catch-up-in-the-5grace-11551236640
113. BCC Sensors for the Internet of Things
114. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/same-daydelivery-ready-for-takeoff
115. Mintel global consumer report
116. Based on GLG call (Elycia Morris - Start-up Advisor at Digital Health Enterprises, Llc (11/2019-present), Advisor at Ubqfit (11/2019-present), Start-up Advisor at Digital Health Enterprises, Llc (11/2019-present), Former Healthcare Business Development Executive at Apple Inc. (7/2016-11/2019), Former Account Executive and Director of Innovation Lab at General Electric Company (9/2010-7/2016)
117. Based on GLG call (Elycia Morris - Start-up Advisor at Digital Health Enterprises, Llc (11/2019-present), Advisor at Ubqfit (11/2019-present), Start-up Advisor at Digital Health Enterprises, Llc (11/2019-present), Former Healthcare Business Development Executive at Apple Inc. (7/2016-11/2019), Former Account Executive and Director of Innovation Lab at General Electric Company (9/2010-7/2016)
118. https://www.jpmorgan.com/commercial-banking/insights/consumerization-of-healthcare
119. “Apple thinks AR glasses will replace phones.” https://www.inc.com/don-reisinger/secret-apple-presentation-reveals-how-arglasses-will-eventually-replace-iphones.html
120. https://medicalfuturist.com/future-of-sports-medicine/122 https://www.roamrobotics.com/ski/#ski-2
121. https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2017/06/roboticexosuit-could-improve-athletic-performance/
122. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/marketing-and-sales/our-insights/the-future-of-personalization-and-how-to-get-ready-for-it
123. https://econsultancy.com/30-brands-with-excellent-social-mediastrategies/
124. https://hashslider.com/blog/4-most-successful-hashtag-campaign-andwhy-they-worked/
125. The Deloitte Consumer Review: Growing Power of Consumers, https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/uk/Documents/consumer-business/consumer-review-8-the-growing-power-of-consumers.pdf
126. https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2017/02/07/when-doconsumer-boycotts-work
127. Based on GLG call (Raheel Khursheed - Former Country Expert, India, at Snap Inc. (9/2018–3/2019), Former Head of News at Twitter INSEA (1/2014–7/2018), Former Director Communications, India, at Change.org, Inc. (3/2012–1/2014)
128. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/50-big-ideas-2019-what-watch-yearahead-isabelle-roughol/
129. https://www.pymnts.com/gig-economy/2018/freelance-workerspayments-online-marketplace-hyperwallet/
130. https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Featured%20Insights/Employment%20and%20Growth/Independent%20work%20Choice%20necessity%20and%20the%20gig%20economy/Independent-Work-Choice-necessity-and-the-gig-economy-Executive-Summary.ashx
131. https://www.upwork.com/press/2018/10/31/freelancing-inamerica-2018/
132. https://http-download.intuit.com/http.intuit/CMO/intuit/futureofsmallbusiness/intuit_2020_report.pdf
133. https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/5-ways-blockchain-willaffect-hr/
134. Based on GLG call (Colton Dillion - Co-Founder at Crypto Hedgehog (9/2017-present), Former Co-Founder, President at Infinite Sum Ltd. (1/2010-2/2018), Former Director of Marketing Strategy, Global Director at Acorns Grow, Inc. (7/2015-5/2016)
135. Based on GLG call (Colton Dillion - Co-Founder at Crypto Hedgehog (9/2017-present), Former Co-Founder, President at Infinite Sum Ltd. (1/2010-2/2018), Former Director of Marketing Strategy, Global Directorat Acorns Grow, Inc. (7/2015-5/2016)
136. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/23/technology/artificialintelligence-ai-workplace.html
137. https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/03/the-future-of-gig-work-couldinvolve-unions-and-co-ops/
138. https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/440941/Trust%20Barometer%202020/2020%20Edelman%20Trust%20Barometer%20Global%20Report.pdf?utm_campaign=Global:%20Trust%20Barometer%202020&utm_source=Website
139. https://www.businessinsider.com/exclusive-amazon-rolls-out-machinesthat-pack-orders-and-replace-jobs-2019-5
140. https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/photos/30-companies-alreadyreplacing-humans-with-robots/ss-BBy8O3h#image=12
141. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/23/us/metoo-replacements.html
142. https://www-cmswire.simplermedia.com/2020_dcx_survey_report.html?_ga=2.61247342.316042238.1579645771-1821710832.1579645771
143. https://www-cmswire.simplermedia.com/2020_dcx_survey_report.html?_ga=2.61247342.316042238.1579645771-1821710832.1579645771
144. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/truste-survey-more-americansconcerned-about-data-privacy-than-losing-income/
145. https://staysafeonline.org/resource/trustenational-cyber-securityalliance-u-s-consumer-privacy-index-2016-infographic/
146. https://www.cpomagazine.com/data-protection/emerging-trends-whatto-expect-from-privacy-laws-in-2020/
147. https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update/2020-and-2021-forecast-overview
148. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2020
149. https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/07/clean-air-initiative-calls-climate-action/ 
150. https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a-degree-of-concern-why-global-temperatures-matter/
151. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
152. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/17/nyregion/sea-wall-nyc.html
153. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/23/climate/climate-summit-global-warming.html
154. https://www.who.int/airpollution/data/cities-2016/en/
155. https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/07/clean-air-initiative-calls-climate-action/
156. https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/fact-sheets/2016/12/antibiotics-and-animal-agriculture-a-primer#:~:text=Antibiotics%20used%20in%20animal%20agriculture%20contribute%20to%20the%20threat%20of,for%20use%20on%20the%20farm
157. https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/advanced%20electronics/our%20insights/capturing%20value%20at%20scale%20in%20discrete%20manufacturing%20with%20industry%204%200/industry-4-0-capturing-value-at-scale-in-discrete-manufacturing-vf.pdf
158. https://linchpinseo.com/trends-waste-management-industry/
159. https://linchpinseo.com/trends-waste-management-industry/
160. https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/energy-storage-2019
161. https://ourworldindata.org/electricity-mix
162. https://ourworldindata.org/electricity-mix
163. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-policy-factbox/factbox-made-in-china-2025-beijings-big-ambitions-from-robots-to-chips-idUSKBN1HR1DK
164. https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Highlights.pdf
165. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS
166. https://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/youth-bulge-a-demographic-dividend-or-a-demographic-bomb-in-developing-countries#:~:text=The%20youth%20bulge%20will%20become,social%20and%20political%20instability1.
167. https://population.un.org/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2018-PopFacts_2018-1.pdf
168. https://www.un.org/en/events/citiesday/assets/pdf/the_worlds_cities_in_2018_data_booklet.pdf
169. https://www.scmp.com/tech/policy/article/3085362/china-has-new-us14-trillion-plan-seize-worlds-tech-crown-us
170. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonyounger/2020/08/18/freelance-revolution-rising-check-out-the-growth-at-upwork-fiverr-and-freelancercom/?sh=6594391f2af5
171. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/07/chinas-gig-economy-is-driving-close-to-the-edge/
172. https://www.inc.com/john-swanciger/the-gig-economy-will-take-over-nearly-half-of-amer.html
173. https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2019/11/15/trump-administration-announces-historic-price-transparency-and-lower-healthcare-costs-for-all-americans.html
174. https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost#:~:text=Based%20on%20the%20data%20collected,sequence%20was%20generally%20below%20%241%2C000
175. https://www.genome.gov/genetics-glossary/Personalized-Medicine
176. https://www.dhl.com/global-en/home/press/press-archive/2019/dhl-supply-chain-deploys-latest-version-of-smart-glasses-worldwide.html
177. https://www.unrealengine.com/en-US/spotlights/theia-interactive-s-harley-davidson-ar-experience-showcases-the-potential-of-real-time
178. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-16/exoskeleton-suits-turn-car-factory-workers-into-human-robots
179. https://neuralink.com/
180. https://hangrr.com/
181. https://welco.me/
182. https://developer.amazon.com/en-US/alexa
183. https://assistant.google.com/
184. https://www.iota.org/
185. https://steemit.com/steemit/@panenka/what-is-steemit-and-how-does-it-work