1. 中国
  2. 前瞻性趋势
  3. 尾注与鸣谢

尾注与鸣谢

尾注与鸣谢

SMD Project Leader: Jonathan Deering

SMD Megatrends Team:
Changing Climates and Resources: Sarah Irish
Shifting Demographics and Social Change: Beth Lokken
The Rebalancing World: Tyler Yoder
Technological Breakthroughs: Bridget Nyland
The Rise of the Individual: Nikhil Sehgal, Alejandro Rothschuh

SMD Advisor: Danielle Amfahr

3M Resources: Alice Melton, Phil Bea and  Jon Taves

 

尾注: 

  1. https://www-bccresearch-com.mmm.idm.oclc.org/market-research/fuel-cell-and-battery-technologies/electric-vehicles-and-fuel-cellvehicles-global-markets.html
  2. https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Highlights.pdf
  3. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
  4. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
  5. Interview with Robert Manning
  6. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division
  7. https://chinapower.csis.org/aging-problem/
  8. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-11-06/india-vs-dotchina-the-battle-for-global-manufacturing
  9. https://www.bcg.com/publications/2018/how-shifting-costs-arealtering-math-global-manufacturing.aspx
  10. World Economic Forum Strategic Intelligence, Ageing
  11. https://www.un.org/en/events/citiesday/assets/pdf/the_worlds_cities_in_2018_data_booklet.pdf
  12. https://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/urbanization/urban-world-theglobal-consumers-to-watch/~/media/57c6ad7f7f1b44a6bd2e24f0777b-4cd6.ashx
  13. https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/social/urbanizationexpanding-opportunities-but-deeper-divides.html
  14. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/mapped-the-dramaticglobal-rise-of-urbanization-1950-2020/
  15. https://intelligence.weforum.org/topics/a1Gb0000000LiPhEAK?tab=-publications
  16. https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS45303119
  17. Interview with Matthew Bailey
  18. Interview with Matthew Bailey
  19. https://hbr.org/2018/06/is-your-company-ready-for-the-rise-of-smartcities
  20. https://www.rti.org/insights/future-work-coming-whether-wereprepared-it-or-not
  21. McGowan, Müge Adalet and Dan Andrews, Skill Mismatch and Public Policy in OECD Countries (Economic Working Paper nos. 1210), OECD, 2015.
  22. Figure from the World Economic Forum, 2018. The response to a question to the business leaders surveyed in the Future of Jobs survey asking the share of core skills of jobs within their enterprise that will stay constant between today and 2022. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_2019_Strategies_for_the_New_Economy_Skills.pdf
  23. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/focus/humancapital-trends/2019/alternative-workforce-gig-economy.html
  24. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/focus/technology-and-thefuture-of-work/redefining-work-workforces-workplaces.html
  25. https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/gender-equality/the-futureof-women-at-work-transitions-in-the-age-of-automation
  26. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/32639/9781464815324.pdf
  27. https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/gender-equality/the-futureof-women-at-work-transitions-in-the-age-of-automation
  28. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/focus/cognitive-technologies/ai-adoption-in-the-workforce.html#endnote-sup-1
  29. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_2019_Strategies_for_the_New_Economy_Skills.pdf
  30. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/four-success-factors-for-workforce-automation
  31. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/organization/our-insights/redefining-the-role-of-the-leader-in-the-reskilling-era
  32. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/focus/technology-and-thefuture-of-work/future-of-work-human-capabilities.html
  33. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/focus/humancapital-trends/2019/alternative-workforce-gig-economy.html
  34. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_EGW_FOJ_Africa.pdf
  35. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/focus/cognitive-technologies/ai-a doption-in-the-workforce.html#endnote-sup-1
  36. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Towards a Reskilling_Revolution.pdf
  37. Deloitte, How the financial crisis affected the world’s workforce
  38. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_protect/---protrav/---travail/documents/publication/wcms_650568.pdf
  39. International Labor Organization
  40. World Bank. The State of Social Safety Nets 2018.
  41. https://www.transamericacenter.org/docs/default-source/globalsurvey-2018/tcrs2018_sr_new-social-contract-for-retirement.pdf
  42. https://www.transamericacenter.org/docs/default-source/globalsurvey-2018/tcrs2018_sr_new-social-contract-for-retirement.pdf
  43. https://www.weforum.org/minding-the-400-trillion-pensions-gap
  44. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/03/retired-women-less-moneypensions-than-men
  45. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/01/wages-have-fallen-43-formillennials-no-wonder-they-ve-lost-hope/
  46. Joshua Kurlantzick GLG interview. Council on Foreign Relations. 2020.
  47. Joshua Kurlantzick GLG interview. Council on Foreign Relations. 2020.
  48. China and the World. McKinsey Global Institute. 2019.
  49. “The Digital Silk Road: Expanding China’s Digital Footprint.” Eurasia Group. 2020.
  50. China and the World. McKinsey Global Institute. 2019.
  51. China and the World. McKinsey Global Institute. 2019.
  52. China and the World. McKinsey Global Institute. 2019.
  53. “With West divided, Huawei plans first European 5G factory in France.” Reuters. 2020.
  54. China and the World. McKinsey Global Institute. 2019.
  55. Daniel Altman GLG interview. Managing member, Nyk Capital Management. 2020.
  56. “Labor Costs Will Skyrocket Over the Next Decade.” CFO. 2018.
  57. Daniel Altman GLG interview. Managing member, Nyk Capital Management. 2020.
  58. “Labor Costs Will Skyrocket Over the Next Decade.” CFO. 2018.
  59. Daniel Altman GLG interview. Managing member, Nyk Capital Management. 2020.
  60. Daniel Altman GLG interview. Managing member, Nyk Capital Management. 2020.
  61. Daniel Altman GLG interview. Managing member, Nyk Capital Management. 2020.
  62. “EG Update” email. Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group. March 30, 2020.
  63. “4 Benefits of a Recession.” NASDAQ. 2020.
  64. “4 Benefits of a Recession.” NASDAQ. 2020.
  65. Daniel Altman GLG interview. Managing member, Nyk Capital Management. 2020.
  66. Philippe Le Corre GLG interview, Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School. 2020.
  67. Jonathan Portes interview, Former Chief Economist, UK Cabinet. 2020.
  68. “How bad will this recession be, and how long will it last?” Marketplace. 2020.
  69. “The World’s Next Great Manufacturing Center.” Harvard Business Review. 2017.
  70. “Africa’s role in the global manufacturing hub of the future.” Harvard Business Review. 2017.
  71. “EY Life Sciences Report: Asia.” EY. 2018.
  72. Joshua Kurlantzick GLG interview. Council on Foreign Relations. 2020.
  73. “German managers: One in five fear production downtimes.” Kloepfel Consulting. 2020.
  74. “Bridging Global Infrastructure Gaps.” McKinsey Global Institute. 2016.
  75. “Latin America: 5 business mega trends to watch in 2019.” Zoho Partners. 2019.
  76. “The world is facing a $15 trillion infrastructure gap by 2040. Here’s how to bridge it.” World Economic Forum. 2019.
  77. “Tackling Europe’s infrastructure needs: the European Fund for Strategic Investments.” Journal of Mega Infrastructure & Sustainable Development. 2019.
  78. https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/87144/15-strategic-reservesunusual- products
  79. “UK to halve emergency petroleum stocks after no-deal Brexit.” Financial Times. 2019.
  80. “Uniper, gas lobby say Germany must help them keep lights on.” Reuters. 2020.
  81. China and the World. McKinsey Global Institute. 2019.
  82. “Chinese lunar ambitions soar 50 years after moon landing.” South China Morning Post. 2019.
  83. Daniel Altman GLG interview. Managing member, Nyk Capital Management. 2020.
  84. “Why infrastructure is the only way to fight a COVID-19 recession in the US.” World Economic Forum. 2020.
  85. “Why infrastructure is the only way to fight a COVID-19 recession in the US.” World Economic Forum. 2020.
  86. Daniel Altman GLG interview. Managing member, Nyk Capital Management. 2020.
  87. “3 things to know about India’s space programme.” World Economic Forum. 2019.
  88. “Chinese lunar ambitions soar 50 years after moon landing.” South China Morning Post. 2019.
  89. http://www.personalizedmedicinecoalition.org/Userfiles/PMCCorporate/file/PM_at_FDA_A_Progress_and_Outlook_Report.pdf
  90. https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/press-room/pressreleases/2017/8/gilead-sciences-to-acquire-kite-pharma-for-119-billion
  91. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-panasonic-results/tesla-up-20-after-panasonic-posts-first-quarterly-profit-at-battery-business-idUSKBN1ZX0MO
  92. https://www.utilitydive.com/news/battery-storage-companies-set-14b-record-in-venture-capital-funding-repo/559379/
  93. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615180/quantumcomputer-race-ibm-google/
  94. https://www.technologyreview.com/f/615309/industrial-gianthoneywell-says-its-built-the-worlds-best-quantum-computer/
  95. Modular and Mobile
  96. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey-analytics/our-insights/leading-your-organization-to-responsible-ai#
  97. https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/artificial-intelligence/visualizing-the-uses-and-potential-impact-of-ai-and-other-analytics
  98. https://www.adlittle.com/sites/default/files/viewpoints/adl_future_of_batteries-min.pdf
  99. Eun Ji interview
  100. Eun Ji interview
  101. https://hai.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj10986/f/ai_index_2019_report.pdf
  102. https://ec.europa.eu/digital-single-market/en/news/ethicsguidelines-trustworthy-ai
  103. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/18/technology/google-eu-androidfine.html
  104. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/Tech-giants-braceagainst-Korea-s-new-antitrust-enforcer
  105. Eun Ji interview
  106. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326302770_Wal-Mart’s_Omni-channel_Synergy
  107. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-lyft/gm-considers-options-forits-lyft-stake-following-ipo-idUSKCN1QZ28S
  108. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/16/business/dealbook/amazon-whole-foods.html
  109. https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2020/01/2020-insights/private-pre-ipo-investments
  110. https://www.innosight.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Corporate-Longevity-2016-Final.pdf
  111. https://research.google/teams/applied-science/gas/
  112. https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-u-s-can-catch-up-in-the-5grace-11551236640
  113. BCC Sensors for the Internet of Things
  114. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/same-daydelivery-ready-for-takeoff
  115. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/same-daydelivery-ready-for-takeoff
  116. Mintel global consumer report
  117. Based on GLG call (Elycia Morris - Start-up Advisor at Digital Health Enterprises, Llc (11/2019-present), Advisor at Ubqfit (11/2019-present), Start-up Advisor at Digital Health Enterprises, Llc (11/2019-present), Former Healthcare Business Development Executive at Apple Inc. (7/2016-11/2019), Former Account Executive and Director of Innovation Lab at General Electric Company (9/2010-7/2016)
  118. Based on GLG call (Elycia Morris - Start-up Advisor at Digital Health Enterprises, Llc (11/2019-present), Advisor at Ubqfit (11/2019-present), Start-up Advisor at Digital Health Enterprises, Llc (11/2019-present), Former Healthcare Business Development Executive at Apple Inc. (7/2016-11/2019), Former Account Executive and Director of Innovation Lab at General Electric Company (9/2010-7/2016)
  119. https://www.jpmorgan.com/commercial-banking/insights/consumerization-of-healthcare
  120. “Apple thinks AR glasses will replace phones.” https://www.inc.com/don-reisinger/secret-apple-presentation-reveals-how-arglasses-will-eventually-replace-iphones.html
  121. https://medicalfuturist.com/future-of-sports-medicine/122 https://www.roamrobotics.com/ski/#ski-2
  122. https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2017/06/roboticexosuit-could-improve-athletic-performance/
  123. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/marketing-and-sales/our-insights/the-future-of-personalization-and-how-to-get-ready-for-it
  124. https://econsultancy.com/30-brands-with-excellent-social-mediastrategies/
  125. https://hashslider.com/blog/4-most-successful-hashtag-campaign-andwhy-they-worked/
  126. The Deloitte Consumer Review: Growing Power of Consumers, https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/uk/Documents/consumer-business/consumer-review-8-the-growing-power-of-consumers.pdf
  127. https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2017/02/07/when-doconsumer-boycotts-work
  128. Based on GLG call (Raheel Khursheed - Former Country Expert, India, at Snap Inc. (9/2018–3/2019), Former Head of News at Twitter INSEA (1/2014–7/2018), Former Director Communications, India, at Change.org, Inc. (3/2012–1/2014)
  129. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/50-big-ideas-2019-what-watch-yearahead-isabelle-roughol/
  130. https://www.pymnts.com/gig-economy/2018/freelance-workerspayments-online-marketplace-hyperwallet/
  131. https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Featured%20Insights/Employment%20and%20Growth/Independent%20work%20Choice%20necessity%20and%20the%20gig%20economy/Independent-Work-Choice-necessity-and-the-gig-economy-Executive-Summary.ashx
  132. https://www.upwork.com/press/2018/10/31/freelancing-inamerica-2018/
  133. https://http-download.intuit.com/http.intuit/CMO/intuit/futureofsmallbusiness/intuit_2020_report.pdf
  134. https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/5-ways-blockchain-willaffect-hr/
  135. Based on GLG call (Colton Dillion - Co-Founder at Crypto Hedgehog (9/2017-present), Former Co-Founder, President at Infinite Sum Ltd. (1/2010-2/2018), Former Director of Marketing Strategy, Global Director at Acorns Grow, Inc. (7/2015-5/2016)
  136. Based on GLG call (Colton Dillion - Co-Founder at Crypto Hedgehog (9/2017-present), Former Co-Founder, President at Infinite Sum Ltd. (1/2010-2/2018), Former Director of Marketing Strategy, Global Directorat Acorns Grow, Inc. (7/2015-5/2016)
  137. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/23/technology/artificialintelligence-ai-workplace.html
  138. https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/03/the-future-of-gig-work-couldinvolve-unions-and-co-ops/
  139. https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/440941/Trust%20Barometer%202020/2020%20Edelman%20Trust%20Barometer%20Global%20Report.pdf?utm_campaign=Global:%20Trust%20Barometer%202020&utm_source=Website
  140. https://www.businessinsider.com/exclusive-amazon-rolls-out-machinesthat-pack-orders-and-replace-jobs-2019-5
  141. https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/photos/30-companies-alreadyreplacing-humans-with-robots/ss-BBy8O3h#image=12
  142. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/23/us/metoo-replacements.html
  143. https://www.oecd.org/inclusive-growth/businessforinclusivegrowth/
  144. https://www.oecd.org/inclusive-growth/businessforinclusivegrowth/
  145. https://www-cmswire.simplermedia.com/2020_dcx_survey_report.html?_ga=2.61247342.316042238.1579645771-1821710832.1579645771
  146. https://www-cmswire.simplermedia.com/2020_dcx_survey_report.html?_ga=2.61247342.316042238.1579645771-1821710832.1579645771
  147. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/truste-survey-more-americansconcerned-about-data-privacy-than-losing-income/
  148. https://staysafeonline.org/resource/trustenational-cyber-securityalliance-u-s-consumer-privacy-index-2016-infographic/
  149. https://www.cpomagazine.com/data-protection/emerging-trends-whatto-expect-from-privacy-laws-in-2020/
  150. https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update/2020-and-2021-forecast-overview
  151. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2020
  152. https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/07/clean-air-initiative-calls-climate-action/ 
  153. https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a-degree-of-concern-why-global-temperatures-matter/
  154. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
  155. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/17/nyregion/sea-wall-nyc.html
  156. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/23/climate/climate-summit-global-warming.html
  157. https://www.who.int/airpollution/data/cities-2016/en/
  158. https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/07/clean-air-initiative-calls-climate-action/
  159. https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/fact-sheets/2016/12/antibiotics-and-animal-agriculture-a-primer#:~:text=Antibiotics%20used%20in%20animal%20agriculture%20contribute%20to%20the%20threat%20of,for%20use%20on%20the%20farm
  160. https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/advanced%20electronics/our%20insights/capturing%20value%20at%20scale%20in%20discrete%20manufacturing%20with%20industry%204%200/industry-4-0-capturing-value-at-scale-in-discrete-manufacturing-vf.pdf
  161. https://linchpinseo.com/trends-waste-management-industry/
  162. https://linchpinseo.com/trends-waste-management-industry/
  163. https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/energy-storage-2019
  164. https://ourworldindata.org/electricity-mix
  165. https://ourworldindata.org/electricity-mix
  166. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-policy-factbox/factbox-made-in-china-2025-beijings-big-ambitions-from-robots-to-chips-idUSKBN1HR1DK
  167. https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Highlights.pdf
  168. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS
  169. https://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/youth-bulge-a-demographic-dividend-or-a-demographic-bomb-in-developing-countries#:~:text=The%20youth%20bulge%20will%20become,social%20and%20political%20instability1.
  170. https://population.un.org/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2018-PopFacts_2018-1.pdf
  171. https://www.un.org/en/events/citiesday/assets/pdf/the_worlds_cities_in_2018_data_booklet.pdf
  172. https://www.scmp.com/tech/policy/article/3085362/china-has-new-us14-trillion-plan-seize-worlds-tech-crown-us
  173. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonyounger/2020/08/18/freelance-revolution-rising-check-out-the-growth-at-upwork-fiverr-and-freelancercom/?sh=6594391f2af5
  174. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/07/chinas-gig-economy-is-driving-close-to-the-edge/
  175. https://www.inc.com/john-swanciger/the-gig-economy-will-take-over-nearly-half-of-amer.html
  176. https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2019/11/15/trump-administration-announces-historic-price-transparency-and-lower-healthcare-costs-for-all-americans.html
  177. https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost#:~:text=Based%20on%20the%20data%20collected,sequence%20was%20generally%20below%20%241%2C000
  178. https://www.genome.gov/genetics-glossary/Personalized-Medicine
  179. https://www.dhl.com/global-en/home/press/press-archive/2019/dhl-supply-chain-deploys-latest-version-of-smart-glasses-worldwide.html
  180. https://www.unrealengine.com/en-US/spotlights/theia-interactive-s-harley-davidson-ar-experience-showcases-the-potential-of-real-time
  181. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-16/exoskeleton-suits-turn-car-factory-workers-into-human-robots
  182. https://neuralink.com/
  183. https://hangrr.com/
  184. https://welco.me/
  185. https://developer.amazon.com/en-US/alexa
  186. https://assistant.google.com/
  187. https://www.iota.org/
  188. https://steemit.com/steemit/@panenka/what-is-steemit-and-how-does-it-work